The Swans are off enjoying a training camp in Tenerife during what feels like an absurdly long break before the home stretch of the season. Meanwhile the board have been arguing over a new McDonalds which threatens to put the squeeze on future stadium expansion plans (as well as Stephen Dobbie's already slim chances of making the first eleven). With blog-worthy news thin on the ground, I'm going to shake off some rust and speculate over the Swans remaining fixtures to figure out the teams chances of staying up.
Sitting in eleventh with 25 games played and a Gooner scalp is a fine state of affairs for the Swans to find themselves in, although one bad spell of form could spoil all that. The magic number for avoiding relegation is cited as 40 points (though I still imagine it will be nearer 37 or even 36 this season). Presently the Swans are three-quarters of the way there with 30. So where can they expect to find the extra ten?
I'll list the Swans remaining fixtures with three figures alongside; one representing an optimistic outlook (green), one pessimistic (red) and one 'realistic' (blue, in as much as anyone can guess such things).
As we can see, taking the optimistic figures, which would see Swansea emphatically conquer their away day demons, the Swans would be set to end the season with a whopping 56 points, which would have been good for seventh place in last years table. Not bad at all. Not all that realistic, either.
Pessimistically, the Swans only manage to scrape up a lowly four more points, giving them 34 for the season and almost certain relegation. Hopefully, also not very realistic.
The 'realistic' estimate suggests the Swans will end up with 45 points. If they can take 15 points from the last 13 matches, which represents 1.15 points per game, they should easily guarantee safety. So far, the team have earned 1.2 points per game. The Swans might well hit 16 points (2.3 ppg) and finish with 46. Last year, that would have been good for at least 14th (12th with superior goal difference).
I wonder how close that guess will prove to be?
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