ESPN Soccernet - Correspondents - Queens Park Rangers
soccernet blog
Queens Park Rangers
Posted by Brian Mahon on 09/29/2011

The first of QPR's West London Derbies is set for Sunday, and the squad have been in good nick the past few games. So what's to worry about, against the cellar dwellers from Craven Cottage? Plenty.

At first blush this fixture seems like a good opportunity for QPR to put three points on the table, but Fulham may be the best club they've faced all year, albeit of their current place on the cusp of the bottom three. Regardless of what they've done so far, Fulham are a dangerous club with a new manager and have started to turn things around after a sluggish start. This weekend's fixture will be the opening in a series of tough tests for the Super Hoops.

Here are three reasons to be concerned about the upcoming match:







Home Field Advantage

The biggest warning light to the upcoming match is the location. Though only a couple of miles away, Craven Cottage is in another world for visiting clubs.

Over the past three seasons, Fulham have shown themselves to be a team of dramatic home/away splits. Consider the following trends:

Home
Win Draw Loss GF GA Win % GD
2010-2011 8 7 4 30 23 0.605 7
2009-2010 11 3 5 27 15 0.657 12
2008-2009 11 3 5 28 16 0.657 12
Away
Win Draw Loss GF GA Win % GD
2010-2011 3 9 7 19 20 0.394 -1
2009-2010 1 7 11 12 31 0.236 -19
2008-2009 3 8 8 11 18 0.368 -7

Simply put, Fulham are just better on their own ground than away, both in scoring goals and holding on to wins and draws. The trend continues this year - through six league games, they've drawn at home thrice versus one draw and two losses on the road. The Cottagers are even on goals at home but have been outscored 4-1 while away.

When breaking the numbers down, its not all doom and gloom though for QPR: Somehow they have managed to be outscored 5-1 at home versus a +2 differential on the road, and both of their wins have come as the visiting team.

This isn't an impossible task by any means - there are reasons Fulham have yet to put a win on the board yet - but the travelers have to take into account that this team does its best work in front of the home crowd.

A (very tiny) bit of momentum

It is hard to say a team that hasn't won in a month of league play is on a roll. It's more of a slow crawl out of the grave - staggering Zombie-like in the right direction. Fulham have drawn in their last four matches, after back to back defeats at Wolverhampton and Newcastle. The last two of these draws have been against heavyweights Manchester City and a Carling Cup draw against Chelsea that they went on to lose in penalties.

Despite not taking away a win in either clash, seeing them hold their own against top clubs is a testament to the skill possible in this underrated Fulham side. New striker Bryan Ruiz hasn't been the wunderkind many hailed him as, but he played well in the Chelsea match, and Bobby Zamora and Clint Dempsey are real threats that will test the QPR back line, which will be missing Armand Traore (suspension) and Danny Gabbidon who is still recovering from injury. This means some combination of Fitz Hall, Bradley Orr and Matthew Connolly will have to hold down the left side of the defence. Hall was out-paced in the second half of the Villa match this past week and the one on one match-ups to that side may prove a critical weakness for QPR.

Scoring problems

QPR continue to lack quality finishing, despite the three goal romp in Wolverhampton two weeks ago. Outside of that match, the only other goal scored all season was Tommy Smith's strike at Everton in August. The R's have failed to score in five games (including the knockout loss to Rochdale) and were saved an embarrassing point robbery last week by a lucky own goal in the closing moments.

Jay Bothroyd has played well, if unspectacularly, in the target role up front of the 4-2-3-1 formation this year. The talent behind him is developing and Wright-Philips and Taarabt worked well in build up play last week, and the other players have created good chances (notably Faurlin and Luke Young). Nonetheless, QPR had near total ball control for thirty minutes against Aston Villa and a feast of corners but came away with nothing. Its too early to panic and Bothroyd can still prove his manager's confidence right - he did score 20 goals for Cardiff last season - but fans are clamoring for more of the speedy DJ Campbell of the bench. Heidar Helguson also looked good coming on in relief last week and was an integral part of the Championship run and Jamie Mackie is also back from his long injury spell. It is too early dump Bothroyd from the starting XI, but other options are gathering behind him should he continue to struggle in front of net. I still think he gives the Hoops and physical presence up front to battle for position, but if he falters there are other talented players waiting in the wings.

Always look on the bright side

Despite what I've said, there are plenty of ways for QPR to win this game. There are reasons why Fulham have yet to get in the win column in the Premier League; i.e. inconsistencies in their midfield, defensive struggles, failures to score not unlike our own. On top of this Fulham have a Europa league fixture Thursday that will hopefully sap a bit of strength from their regulars. QPR have great momentum themselves and despite fading a bit against the vigorous Aston Villa attack last week, they kept grinding and creating opportunities on net. If they can play a disciplined midfield game, use possession to their favor as they did against Newcastle and Wolves, they have a good chance to take a point from this game. But expect a determined opposition at Craven Cottage that is eager to put on a show for their home supporters and finally get a win.


Prediction:

1 - 1 draw. Shaun Derry finally breaks through on one of his endless header attempts from a corner, but a defensive lapse allows an easy goal to put the Cottagers level and hold out for a point.



Follow ESPNsoccernet's Football Correspondents on Twitter


Comments

Posted by Terry F. on 10/03/2011

Great analysis.
Unfortunately, it all goes out the window when the team simply doesn't show up, gets in a hole and plays with desperation, chasing the game.
Hard to believe it was the same team on the pitch, especially against Fulham!
Just have to try to throw it off as a 1-off, but these things tend to linger for a few games.

  Post your comment
Name:
Email Address:
Comments:
characters left
About
David Young Brian Mahon is a writer and football fan who has been a QPR supporter for many years. Thus heartbreak and wandering in the wilderness of English football are all he's ever known - until now. Recognizing his most valuable contribution to a football pitch was staying off it, he is focused on armchair managing, heckling at the television and writing about the beautiful game. You can follow him on twitter at @BrianTMahon

RSS feed

Categories
Recent Posts
Archives