Fingernails: we're hanging by them, we're chewing them nervously. Boro are still not relegated yet, although judging by the expanses of bare red seats at the Riverside on Saturday, a lot of supporters just wish we'd just get it over with already.

Amazingly, despite Monday's crushing loss to Newcastle, at halftime in the last home game of the season we were out of the relegation zone, with Hull and Newcastle both losing while we lead Villa. At that point there was real hope in the air, and the crowd were defiantly chanting the Great Escape theme.

Of course, this is Boro, and the second half reminded us why those who had chosen not to see the team sign off at the Riverside were probably wise. The inevitable surrender of a lead, the failure to be incisive and the squandering of what few chances we did create: somehow this team still contrive to make it painful even after we've grown wearily used to it.

The first half was very positive: right at kick-off we won possession from Villa and then immediately went straight down the pitch to force a corner. With Alves injured Southgate set up what looked like an aggressive 4-5-1, with Downing, Adam Johnson and Tuncay supporting Emnes up front.

Tuncay has played deeper in recent weeks and he cropped up all over the pitch making things happen, but his threat to Villa was confirmed by the goal. Downing's fierce ball into the box looped up off a Villa player and despite being surrounded by blue shirts, the Turk incredibly - almost impossibly - connected with an elastic overhead kick to flash the ball into the bottom corner. It was quite effortlessly the best of the twenty seven league goals we've scored this season.

The goal lifted moods, as did news filtering in that Newcastle and Hull had fallen behind, but we didn't capitalise on it. Justin Hoyte forced Brad Friedel to make a smart save, but our momentum had been killed somewhat by an injury to Downing. What initially looked like a simple slip caused him an inordinate amount of pain, and he had to be stretchered off. Replays showed that Petrov had stepped on Downing's ankle while the winger was in full flight.

It's unknown right now whether Downing will be fit for the last game of the season. Such injuries are always very painful when they happen, no matter how much adrenaline is flowing through your system, but the damage can range from mere swelling and bruising to broken bones.

It took several minutes to get Downing off and Marlon King replaced him. King's role was unclear: he popped up on the left a lot but drifted inwards too, and his tactical ambiguity seemed to harm our directness.

The half-time optimism was quickly erased. In one flurry of pressure, Villa equalised when John Carew had time to control and fire a shot into the bottom corner after a goal mouth scramble and a pitiful clearance from King, despite nine shirts sharing the penalty area with the Villa striker. From then on it was typical Boro: lots of passing around in front of the Villa defence but no cutting edge to any of it, and defensive sloppiness at the other end. On several occasions the crowd had to loudly alert the Boro players to a short Villa corner, while David Wheater was in cloud cuckoo land when a long ball up the pitch went completely over his head and let Ashley Young in on goal, forcing Jones to be at his best.

The game did open up, but Villa had the best chances and it was incredibly tense stuff towards the end. Tuncay headed and then half-volleyed just over the crossbar, but whenever an over-worked Boro passing move broke down Villa would break with lightning pace and very nearly won the game in injury time.

Boos rang out at the final whistle, intensifying when Gareth Southgate came onto the pitch to applaud the home fans and dying off almost as soon as he departed. The players who stayed out to clap the fans were warmly received, which says it all. Southgate has lost the supporters, something Steve Gibson must be aware of. Unless something incredible happens next weekend, the club might well struggle to sell season tickets to a crowd facing Championship football under an unpopular manager over the summer.

Of course, something incredible could still happen. Newcastle went onto lose at home to Fulham, although Hull equalised against Bolton, putting them three points ahead of us. We now need to beat West Ham at Upton Park, Newcastle to lose at Villa and Man United's reserves to absolutely stuff Hull to the tune of a four goal swing on the goal difference column.

So, it's still not over yet. The requisite combination of results is highly unlikely and if thousands of fans didn't think we'd beat Villa on Saturday then not many are going to believe we will survive now. And yet… what else can we do but hope?