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Manchester City
Posted by Wallace Poulter on 09/27/2011

Surprising as it sounds I'm pleased to see United's fast start and that of Wayne Rooney. No, once again I'm not a secret Red, but rather United's fast start has blunted some of the coverage of City and Sergio Aguero. Had United started slowly, say like a Tottenham or Arsenal, then the pressure and hype around City would have been immense.

Normally each year I post my predictions for the upcoming season. Sometimes I'm successful going against the assorted media masses, such as United winning last year or Liverpool's fall from grace and occasionally (yes West Ham I'm looking at you) I miss by a place or 10. This year there were so many potential late transfer window moves that it made any kind of reasonable prediction moot.

I am, truth be told, rather surprised by the fast start of United. "You never win anything with kids" noted Alan Hansen many years ago and the former Liverpool defender has had that thrown in his face ever since. And yet, Hansen is fundamentally correct. The United crop of Beckham, Scholes and co was, if not unique, then incredibly rare.

The thing about youngsters is that they have no fear and no experience. Certainly that's a double edged sword. You can get the fast start that United has experienced this year, but it can also get you bounced out of the FA Cup on a wintery evening in the third round against a League One opponent. Now Ferguson, being a smart builder of teams, has brought in youth such as Phil Jones that has already played in the Premier League which should mitigate that.

Jones may well turn out to be a very special player. The comparisons that have already started to Duncan Edwards are of course ridiculously premature, not least because the Edwards was the greatest player ever to play the game. However you see the style of play that Jones has and wonder how he would have played as an old fashioned wing half. I think Jones is wasted at the back and should be playing in midfield, but the next England manager should take Joe Hart, Jones, Jack Wilshere and Wayne Rooney and make it his spine of the national side and build around them.

United will ultimately go as far as David De Gea will carry them. I've been singularly unimpressed with the positioning of goalkeepers in La Liga and De Gea seems to have that problem. Quality reflexes of course, but I'd expect teams to fire from distance often to test the youngster.

While United have the tradition of continually adding youngsters to their setup, Chelsea do not. Carlo Ancelotti worked absolute miracles the past couple of years with their aging squad and his firing may be one of the more unjust in Premier League history. You can see Andre Villas-Boas moving quickly to add new recruits. My instinct says that Chelsea will struggle this year and if I had to pick one of the Big Five to miss the top four then it would be Chelsea, not Arsenal.

What to make of the Gunners? As good as a player as Fabregas was for Arsenal there was this sneaking suspicion that they were never going to win with him. I much prefer Wilshere and Ramsey as a midfield combination long term. For all the doom and gloom a lineup of Szczesny in goal, Sagna, Vermaelen, Mertesacker and Gibbs as a back four, Song as the DM, Wilshere and Ramsey in the middle with Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain outside and Van Persie up front is pretty darn good. With Arteta, Arshavin and Benayoun filling in as needed. That's a top four side and a core of Vermaelen, Wilshere, Ramsey and Van Persie is a group you could build a championship around. The injury to Wilshere of course amplifies the loss of Fabregas and Nasri, but if the Arsenal fans have a little patience this side will be a lot better than some of them seem to think.

Liverpool are probably a year away, but make no mistake the club is back after enduring the reign of Rafa Benitez. Sorry Liverpool fans, you were blinded by the Champions League success and were never going to win with him in charge even with all the transfer money in the world. We have a lot of smart Liverpool fans hanging around Soccernet and their comments about Andy Carroll have been very interesting. There's an abundance of talent that Kenny Dalglish is collecting in the north west and it's Liverpool more than anyone else that I think could outperform expectations this year.

Also collecting talent is Harry Redknapp at Spurs. It says a lot about what is wrong with football today that the club is focused on getting back to the Champions League rather than embracing their place in Europe this year. Harry to England and Mourinho to Tottenham is still a situation I'd love to see. You'd end up with six clubs truly battling for four Champions League spots. And for those that don't see Mourinho to Spurs, where else is he going to go? England is his next stop after Real Madrid and a move to United, and I'm not convinced that would happen regardless, requires Ferguson to depart. SAF shows no indication of doing so and if the managerial posts of City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are set then the only remaining big club are Spurs who may lose their manager to England and are willing to splash the cash. There's also the fact that Mourinho loves London and there's only one club that makes sense.

Which brings us belatedly to City. It's kind of hard to post about City at the moment as I keep seeing issues, even while most fans are in utter delirium about the start of the club. Case in point the game against Wigan. On the surface an excellent 3-0 victory, but there were acres and I mean acres of space in front of the back four that a United, Liverpool, Chelsea or Spurs would have exploited ruthlessly. Bluntly put, same team and formation selection and City would get rolled.

The form of the front six, particularly of David Silva, has blinded most to the defensive deficiencies that are there for all to see. And yes, the argument can be made that if you are banging in goals at the one end, you have to worry less about prevention - the Keegan theory of football tactics which makes for great games. But the absence of Nigel de Jong is going to bite City hard one of these days. Kompany does not play as well when having to deal with the plays coming through the middle.

Aguero has made a phenomenal start to his time in the Premier League and equally as important, seems to have been the catalyst to jumpstart Edin Dzeko. Their understanding with Silva is the kind of play that can lead City to trophies. That being said as good as Aguero has been I can't get over the play of Silva. Best player in the Premier League, bar none, and the pass to Milner for City's second against Everton may be the best "vision" pass you'll see all year.

So you see my dilemma? United have made a fast start with youngsters, City have taken a step forward on a brilliant newcomer (who tend to fade over a long Premier League Season), Chelsea are rebuilding as quickly as they can, Liverpool have an abundance of talent, Arsenal are unwisely being written off and Spurs are back to focusing on the league. Any one of these six have the players, when healthy, to put together a run at the title while also having issues that could knock them completely out of the Champions League places. Yes even United who sacrificed experienced squad versatility and depth for youthful squad versatility. It's turned out well for them so far, but you saw against Stoke what happens to United with a couple of key injuries.

I don't know who will win the league this year. The hot start of City and United, while taking me back to the old comic book days of Jack and Jimmy, may say they are the only contenders, but I'm not so sure.

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Comments

Posted by Hari on 09/27/2011

Wallace,
good points....de jong has been sorely missed-idont think fulham would hav come bak like that had he been there........but hargreaves looks good...with a bit of luck, we could hav the backup we need for dejong.......what do you think?

Wallace Reply Yes, if Hargreaves becomes the natural replacement when needed, it would be a huge win for the club.

Posted by tunde mcfc on 09/27/2011

The team only needs time to gel,when this happens,mancity will be the best(epl&europe),we have great players and manager

Posted by Avi on 09/27/2011

Hello Wallace,

Its a joy to read your posts even though you write for Utd's arch rivals. But nevertheless I love your analysis of the game and insights which are often missed by so called experts. City are doing really well going forward but even I felt that they really needed Nigel to be back. What do you think about Owen Hargreavas as a stop gap replacement for Nigel? I have a very good feeling about Owen being a good contributor to City this season.

I am a bit surprised when you say Arsenal still have their role as title contenders, I am not saying they wont compete for top 4, but title contenders? Chelsea is an interesting conundrum and I guess its success is largely linked with success of Torres, if he can get going they will be up there at the end of the season, still a big IF even though I see signs of revival in Torres's form.

It make a very interesting season and may the best team win (hoping it to be UTD :))

Avi.

Wallace Reply Arsenal have a good first team when healthy. I'm not sure about their depth and they are certainly suffering from the loss of Fabregas and Nasri. United caught them on the perfect day for that blitz.

Posted by Glen on 09/27/2011

I question the logic of even bothering to make long-term prediction on the performances of football clubs because firstly, despite what we like to think of our knowledge of the footballing world, us spectators suffer from a dearth of information. We do not know what happens within clubs, we do not know what happens before matches and therefore, I don't think there is any way us football fans can get away with claiming accurate predictions.

Secondly, sporting form is HIGHLY unpredictable. I dare you to challenge that. What determines form can range from fitness to mindset to even peripheral factors like familial relationships. Since form is tightly linked to overall performance of a club, this makes any prediction null and void.

We all thought that Kieron Dyer was going to be a special player didn't we? Look what happened. Phil Jones looks promising, nothing more. In fact I question the need to even feel optimistic, considering how many have previously fallen short.

Wallace Reply Form and momentum are seriously under valued in analyzing the game, yes.

Posted by MCapital on 09/27/2011

Hi Wallace,

Welcome back - I have been going back and forth to check whether you had blogged yet!
Another brilliant post. I believe you are quite right about the 'future' spine of the three lions.

What would be views with regard to Mario and Carlos, not being regular players? Are their attitudes, I presume, good for the team spirit at City?

I am a United Supporter but I have a feeling that the amazing start we have had is a bit of optical illusion!
There is still a long way to go and we all know that an injury to Wayne is as bad to Untied as an injury to David and Nigel is to City. Just too important individuals in the greater scheme of teamwork.

What are your views about the Champions League? I think Real Madrid will be more of a threat than Barca!

Regards,

Wallace Reply Mourinho will figure out Barcelona of that I'm sure.

I agree that in some ways United have been a little fortunate, especially catching Arsenal at their lowest ebb in years, but you've still got to put the ball in the net. Should Tevez stay the whole year I think he will play more and more as it is highly unlikely that Aguero will keep up this level of play in his first year in the Premier League.

I'm not sure about Balotelli. His reaction to scoring the goal at Everton was great to see and I still feel there are days when a Dzeko - Balotelli combination will be lethal...

Posted by Glen on 09/27/2011

I apologise if anything I have said comes across as aggressive or arrogant; I only mean to express what I think in the most straightforward manner.

Now, I would like to dispute your evaluation of the teams. Although I think far looking predictions are a waste of time, I believe that predictions of the immediate future may have some truth, for form, condition and squad strength are less variable in the short term.

First. Arsenal are a squad in horrid shape. Their defence is anything but sturdy. Gibbs is a terrible defensive player, I can't see how anyone would dispute that. Mertesacker lacks positioning, and Vermaelen is injury prone. Arsenal also proper lacks cover across the back four. Andre Santos/Jenkinson/Koscielny/Djourou? Far from solid defensively I think. Furthermore, I think Ramsay does not have the poise and the physical strength to dominate the midfield, while Wilshere is injur prone. I doubt they'll perform well with an anchor like Fletcher or De Jong

Wallace Reply Mertesacker will benefit from having Song in front, ala de Jong and Vermaelen next to him. But your comment about Arsenal's depth is well taken. Ramsey I think we'll have to agree to disagree on as I rate him very highly.

Posted by Glen on 09/27/2011

Up front Walcott is either good or very bad, and Van Persie just doesn't have the presence and the movement to lead the line. Gervinho has skill, but he doesn't seem to involve himself in the game enough. Wenger's recruits don't look too capable either. Park once again, doesn't seem like the out-and-out forward they need, and Chamakh looks perennially disinterested. I'd be surprised if they can actually improve dramatically this season.


I'd also like to question your evaluation of Chelsea's aptitude. You base your opinion on your 'instinct', which many do, and yet observing sports is more scientific than thinking about which players look good. Chelsea have not been smooth, but if you look at their squad, I dare say they have more than enough to mount a serious challenge. They have been getting better over the past couple of games and I find it very odd that you think the club to be less capable than Tottenham and Arsenal

Wallace Reply Well my instinct generally does pretty well for me. The best I can say is that Chelsea appear a collection of individuals rather than a team at the moment.

Posted by Adam on 09/27/2011

There is always talk about using "attacking" formations against lower tier teams (wigan) It works! When Mancini reverted to a defensive formation in the fulham game it hurt. (Zab for Silva) De jong is coming back!

Wallace Reply That's a valid point about using an attacking formation against Wigan.

Posted by chris on 09/27/2011

so glad to have you back Wallace-

I really think City could have a chance to win the league, things being what they are. United, City, Tottenham and Chelsea for the Top 4. City will have a better chance in the league if they fail to get out of the group in the Champions League - which I think is pretty likely - a lot depends on this afternoon's result. Your thoughts on City's Champions league campaign? Also - Tevez to go in January with a defender coming in?

Wallace Reply Tevez is gone as soon as someone will agree to City's fee. I really like Liverpool this year so I think they've got to be in the top four.

I'm really not sure about the Champions League. I don't actually like it, I can say that now we are in it, but much prefer the old European Cup which was for Champions only. That being said playing against Bayern Munich is great for the club. I'm not sure the team has been a team long enough for European success this year.

Posted by Niyi on 09/27/2011

What I find the best about Mancity is whether we win the league title or not, we seem set for the top 4 this season again. As much as I enjoy city's perfomance so far, I don't think they have a chance in Champions league, or Europa if they don't make it past the group stage.
I absolutely agree on the defence, its not exactly confidence inspiring so far, as we saw with Bolton, Napoli and Fulham. Clearing off the line in the games against Napoli, Birmingham, Everton shows how shaky the defence is. But the best form of defence remains attack which we do so far.

I do not think Chelsea will drop off top 4 this season. Arsenal is more likely to than chelsea will this season. Chelsea is grinding results even when not playing well. They have only lost to a superior ManU so far. I expect ManU to be shaky for the next couple of weeks due to injury.

Posted by Marty on 09/27/2011

Actually Wallace, it's United who leave acres of space at the back, not City. United have allowed more shots on goal per opponents' time of possession than any team in the league, bar none. They are the team with the leaky defense, it just simply hasn't shown up yet due to a combination of luck (I mean Jesus, Torres, how could you miss?), De Gea, and having lots of possession. A derby right now would result in an all-attack no-defense type game certainly, but I'm not so sure City would lose.

Arsenal, when at full strength, could make a title challenge. Wilshere and Vermaelen out, not so much. Liverpool still have their midfield conundrum. I think it will be Tottenham and Chelsea joining City and United in the top four.

Wallace Reply yeah Arsenal have to be fit or it could get ugly. You may be right about United although I would see them play five in the middle and frustrate City.

Posted by David on 09/27/2011

Wally, any idea how long De Jong is out? Is Milner fit now after his cameo on the weekend?

One last question - which full backs would you want to see in these CL matches, vs Napoli Mancini used Zabs and Clichy, right? Going to be crucial today vs. Ribery and likely Mueller considering Robben's fitness.

Wallace Reply I've been hearing that de Jong is close to coming back... Not sure about Zabaleta and Clichy, Richards has speed to burn that could be useful.

Posted by Jerry on 09/27/2011

With City having all away fixtures after Champions League matches, do you think that downsizes their chances to win the PL?

Wallace ReplyThe games against Liverpool and Chelsea are tough after a CL game no doubt. Blackburn and QPR should be winnable regardless and the Manchester derby is essentially a home game from a preparation standpoint.

Posted by CJ on 09/27/2011

Hi Wallace, very good article and nice analysis. But I got a feeling that your predictions are based upon starting 11 of the top 6 teams and not the full-squad. Correct me if I am wrong. If you consider full-squad, chelsea has one of the better ones. So has City and United. But rest 3 don't have depth to survive the season. What you think? Will one the chelsea-united-city will win the title and one of the remaining 3 will clinch the 4th spot?

Wallace Reply I'm not impressed with Chelsea's squad. Too many key players got old quickly.

Posted by Maha on 09/27/2011

Nice Article...no one can really predict about sports but i guess your intution is pretty spot on...
Totally agree about too many key players getting old suddenly for Chelsea.
United will start playing older players come December January and will keep winning.
Arsenal really more than anyone require Song and Wilshire.. as Ramsey looks lost without them and without ideas.
City.. their european players will struggle in December january persiod and will not win the league...
Tottenhams first 11 simple looks very good for a top four...but their depth is the problem...
Liverpool well they have Steve Clark who i rate highly and they will start getting it right sooner rather than later... but question is soon enough???

Good article once again.. looking forward to your next blog....

Posted by Conor Quinlan Ireland on 09/27/2011

Haha put your money where your mouth is concerning chelsea not getting into top 4!!Is this your first year watching football?Long season in it and while City may well go on and win it,will see how they handle d pressure from March onwards!!CFC 4EVER

Wallace Reply sigh...

Posted by james on 09/27/2011

hi i am a arsenal fan and i agree with your points about the 3 lions and tht of arsenal but we have to get the fact tht under wenger we are now a selling club the board of directors dont care about the team just the profits they can make from it same with wenger how longer is this embarrisment going to continue i personally hope all arsenal fans revolt untill we get wht we want

Wallace Reply It's not that Arsenal are a selling club, I think that's a little unfair. It's that this idea of buying youth and creating stars, while fine in theory, needs the occasional finished product to be bought. Dennis Bergkamp being a prime example. Arsenal seem to have forgotten that they have to do both.

Posted by james on 09/27/2011

i agree with your reply to a certain extent but we dont make the mixture between experiance and youth we sell our bets players to our rivals for example : gallas, nasri, clichy, adebyor, toure , then fabregas goes as well then wenger wont open the cheqbook because hes is concerned about how much money goes into the boards pockets arsenal fans get lied to day in day out by our club and now it should stop

Posted by mohammad on 09/27/2011

Good reading Wallace, Silva, Rooney and Suarez top three players this year so far but, when it comes to work rate Suarez is on a different level and that's why by year end if Liverpool are PL winners or in CL he is player of the year. I am a Liverpool fan and what you wrote makes a lot of sense but if steve G and Carroll get going this could be the year. PL this year is phenomenal and i believe that this years winner is not going to be described as the best team, but one with some lucky breaks going there way and a reasonably healthy team most of the year.

Wallace Reply Very much agree that injuries this year more than most could be the deciding factor.

Posted by Conor Quinlan Ireland on 09/27/2011

Unfortunately build a team on prima-donna wages get prima-donna behaviour. Maybe you can buy success but can you buy commitment and team spirit??

Wallace Reply Every club buys success.

Posted by Carl on 09/27/2011

Pleasure to read you as always, Wallace. Your uncertainty is actually great; hopefully that means a nail-biting finish this year . . .

Outside the top 6 who do you see as the one PL club to watch as making the closest run for a top 6 spot (meaning . . . who finishes 7th)? Also, do you see any surprise relegation candidates other observers don't? Always enjoy your insights.

Wallace Reply I wouldn't be surprised to see Stoke make a determined run this year and if they weren't in Europe then I'd certainly pick them. Newcastle of course sit in fourth, but we'll have to see how they do over the long haul. That's the problem this year, there isn't an obvious dark horse. At the bottom I don't expect Bolton to struggle too much longer, but all the teams you would expect to be in the mix, West Brom, Blackburn, the three promoted clubs etc. should be working towards 40 points for the year. Villa is probably the one club I would worry about even though they have some good youngsters.

Posted by Israel Diaz on 09/28/2011

I love how you give high praise to David Silva. I've been following him for years now, and he's my favorite player out there. Why don't more people see his quality? He has amazing skills, and is one of the BEST team players around. He is humble, works hard, is in charge of almost every Man City goal, a peanut sized man DOMINATING defense with amazing grace and touch. Just look at when anyone scores, he's the first to run to them. David Silva= perfect player to have on a squad!

Wallace Reply Great forward play is usually the bi-product of great vision (Alonso's pass for Real's second against Ajax yesterday for example) and Silva is so good it's amazing. Actually wish Adebayor had been allowed to play with him, because a lot of those offsides against Adebayor wouldn't be with Silva making the passes.

Posted by dave on 09/28/2011

Mr. Wallace, with all due respect, you don't seem to know a lot about our club but since you are a city fan, i would let that slide, as for others; ANYONE WHO SAYS THAT WE CAN WIN WITH THIS SQUAD IS IGNORANT, DELUDED OR JUST PLAIN NAIVE. REALLY? you are going to win with Ramsey? or even wilshere? are you guys serious? The only reason we didn't win with cesc was because of our defense. It was glaring that that was what we needed all those years and yet the boss decided to buy the likes of Denilson as a DM, Koscielny, Squillaci,and the ineffective Djorou.
Now ask yourself this, if we didn't win with cesc, how are we going to win with inferior players like Wilshere, Ramsey, Arteta, Rosicky, Arshavin, Walcott and co.? Please do tell me. Ramsey is not the future. When cesc was his age he was dominating the likes of the galacticos in midfield, this guy can't even show up against the likes of Swansea. For us to return to the glory days, we need to get the likes of Gotze, Hazard & Hamsik.

Wallace Reply Hopefully Wenger agrees that Ramsey and Wilshere are inferior players and offloads them to City. I think they're the best two young midfielders in the Premier League.

Posted by AARON MARK HENDRIX on 09/28/2011

Yeah injuries could be the deciding factor,but unrest can affect the squad too.In Lampard,Drogba,Anelka,Suarez,Carrol(eventually)Nasri,Tevez & Ballotelli(just to name a few)you have players who are unhappy,or will be unhappy if they dont start regularly.This could affect morale,create disharmony etc.The gaffer who can sort out his team the soonest will be the one whose team will challenge United.U see,United are run by Fergie,what he says goes and there's no 2 ways about it.Other teams dont really have that stability.I can see AVB moulding "his" Chelsea,and Mancini is aiming for complete control too,but that's what happens when u have rich owners,they tend to feel they know best.Anywayz,looks like United,City and Chelsea will be fighting it out amongst themselves.I dont see liverpool,arsenal or spurs in title race.But their results against these 3 could go a long way in determining the final result.I dont think u will see many points being dropped at "smaller" clubs like last season

Posted by Joushin on 09/28/2011

After yesterday's incident, do you feel Mancini has lost the dress room? Also, do you see us making it out of the group?

Wallace Reply No, Mancini hasn't lost the dressing room although he needs to work with Dzeko. Tevez on the other hand is toast.

I've actually never thought City would make it out of the group this year.

Posted by Srinath on 09/28/2011

Hi Wallace, I have been reading your posts regularly, but I don't understand your pessimistic view on Chelsea and relatively optimistic views on Arsenal and Liverpool. Chelsea's squad has definitely improved over last year as only Benayoun and Zhirkov have left. Apart from that the only change is AVB instead of Ancelotti.So far he hasn't done anything wrong and some good changes as well. So on what basis are you saying Chelsea will struggle?

Wallace Reply Chelsea's squad is aging and Ancelotti's strength is getting the maximum out of such a squad (see also Milan) so it is not unreasonable to expect AVB to have less success his first year with the club.

Posted by John on 10/17/2011

Hi Wallace, I have been checking your blog so often and I am just wondering where you have been and what your next post is going to be about.

Wallace Reply To a certain extent it's a lack of news that I find interesting and want to look at further and from a different angle. I've commented before about City's issues in defense without de Jong and how Mancini's formation choices are frustrating. And the Tevez saga was completely predictable. However, I have high hopes for the Manchester derby this weekend and my initial thoughts are now up.

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About
Wallace Poulter Wallace Poulter is an award winning video game producer, designer, industry consultant and writer. He has been a football fanatic since the day he moved in next door to Brian Clough. "Cloughie" being the acknowledged genius that he was promptly moved out and went to manage Derby. A serviceable senior school left-back in his youth, Poulter played one season of Sunday league football as a striker proving conclusively that he was a serviceable senior school left-back! Today Poulter remains involved with football as a licensed referee and most recently as a consultant on a Football MMO.

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