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Posted by Wallace Poulter on 06/17/2010

I'll be surprised in either Germany or Argentina win the World Cup. A strange statement I know. There isn't a team in the world that can sustain excellent football for seven games in a row. There will always be at least one game where the team isn't clicking in their play. When would you rather have that off game? During the group stage when you only have to generate enough points to get through to the next phase or in the knockout stage where one bad game gets you sent home?

Of course teams can start too slow, the Italians are fairly infamous for that. If I had to predict right now I'd say if Brazil and Holland meet up in the Quarter Finals, as they are seeded to do so, then I would expect the winner of the World Cup to come from that match.

Originally when looking over the match ups my biggest concern for England was that they came second in their group and ended up playing the Germans in the round of 16. Now I'm not so sure. To win the World Cup, and I don't believe England will, but to do so the team will need at least one signature win against world class competition. It would be an intensely difficult game for England but such a victory is the kind of spring board that the team will need. And while the path would be difficult should England advance they would avoid Brazil until the final.

If you study the fixture bracket the potential ease of England's quarter (Group A and Group C) of the draw is striking. England should finish first in their group and get to the Semi Finals, anything less given the potential fixture list would be a complete failure. There is no one ranked higher than them that they should face. This all changes if England finish second in their group.

In the second quarter (Group B and Group D) are Argentina and Germany who are seeded to play each other in the Quarter Finals. The third quarter (Group F and H) seemed like Spain's for the taking prior to that first game hiccup. It's from this fixture grouping that I can see a "surprise" semi finalist emerging because the second place finisher from the group G is going to play on that side. Which leaves the final quarter (Group E and G) which contain 3 of the top 4 ranked countries in the world, Brazil, Portugal and Holland. As I mentioned Brazil and Holland are seeded to play each other in the quarter finals.

The struggles of Spain and Italy set up the possibility that both might finish second in their groups and match them up against Holland and Brazil leaving four of the top ranked sides in the world (1. Brazil, 2. Spain, 4. Holland, 5 Italy) playing each other in the second round!

Imagine if you will just that second round scenario plus Portugal or Ivory Coast finishing second in group G and England finishing second in Group C. All of which are reasonable and you would end up with the distinct possibility that the USA could get to the semi finals of the World Cup!

In such a scenario the US would play whomever emerged from Brazil et al while the Argentina/Germany winner could play the Group G second place team or one of the surprise South American teams such as Chile or Paraguay.

Certainly everything can change after the next round of matches but the first game play of England, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ivory Coast, Brazil and Holland makes such a situation quite within the realms of possibility.

Such a projection is an Algeria upset of the US away from looking foolish I grant you nor is this in any way the best US team in recent memory regardless of last year's Confederations Cup. The scenario is there for an unexpected team, maybe even two time winner Uruguay, to end up in the semi finals.

My prediction? A Manchester City player will win the World Cup...

Comments

Posted by Justin on 06/30/2010

That last statement may be especially true now...Boateng in the German squad. Silva in the Spanish. Still count Robi in the Brazil squad and with de Jong in the dutch...it is looking good, of course not forgetting Tevez in the Argentina.

Posted by Mick on 07/12/2010

Wallace
Your prediction was correct! In fact a City player first, second and third

Posted by jason wilcox on 07/14/2010

felt a little compelled to write a quick note and enquire about your thoughts on James Milner Wallace.
surely we can invest a little more wisely than this...regardless of how much money is available? why wouldnt Villa sell him for anything close to $20M......crazy not to.

Wallace Reply I'm a huge fan of Milner and have been since his Leeds United days. You can also see why this sale from Newcastle to Aston Villa was the final straw for Keegan. That being said with the current squad I'm not sure where he plays. In a Mancini Diamond there is no place for him with Barry, de Jong and Small Berries as your ball winning midfield three. In a 4-2-3-1 surely de Jong and Barry play the two, Small Berries replaces is brother in the back four and Silva and Johnson are out on the wings. In a 4-4-2 again de Jong, Barry, Silva and Johnson block his way.

Posted by collin on 07/17/2010

i have beean looking at city since the take over and for me all thats missing to make us a final 4 team is a creative midfielder someone in the engine room who have the stills not only to work the ball but also who can take on player when needed

Wallace Reply Someone like... Elano!

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About
Wallace Poulter Wallace Poulter is an award winning video game producer, designer, industry consultant and writer. He has been a football fanatic since the day he moved in next door to Brian Clough. "Cloughie" being the acknowledged genius that he was promptly moved out and went to manage Derby. A serviceable senior school left-back in his youth, Poulter played one season of Sunday league football as a striker proving conclusively that he was a serviceable senior school left-back! Today Poulter remains involved with football as a licensed referee and most recently as a consultant on a Football MMO.

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