As we reach both the start of the new year and half way through the season it seems like a good time to look at the August pre season predictions and how good, and bad, they were.

The Big Four - Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool

Liverpool
After last year Liverpool were and still are in some corners, the trendy pick to win it all. Not so fast. Xabi Alonso has left, proof if any was required that the ego of Benitez out strips his ability and there's no cover if Fernando Torres is injured. Add an unsettled Javier Mascherano and this is a recipe for disaster. I wonder who Rafa will blame this time for his failures? That Glen Johnson is the England Right Back speaks more about the paucity of the position and how much Micah Rchards has regressed rather than the former Pompey man's ability. Throw in a still injured Alberto Aquilani for Alonso and it is Liverpool not Arsenal who are the prime candidate to fall out of the top four.

Not bad. Arsenal are four points behind, but with a game in hand against Bolton. It's Ramsey rather than Wilshere who appears poised for the breakthrough season at the Emirates however the basic premise seems sound. Chelsea will live and die with the next few weeks while Drogba is away at the African Nations Cup. It's hard for me to say this but this season may be one of the most impressive for Old Purple Nose. The injuries have been staggering and to be in second place at this point really is quite shocking. Meanwhile as anticipated Liverpool have struggled mightily. I can only imagine all of the "experts" who picked them to win were wanting anyone to beat United rather than looking at the race objectively. That being said with the right signings in January, Liverpool could still close the gap and challenge for fourth.

The Second Four - Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Everton, Aston Villa

Martin O'Neill has built a very nice squad. It lacks the pure quality of Manchester United but the depth is good. Watch the January transfer window carefully. If O'Neill can snag a couple of high quality players, such as Bolton's Fabrice Muamba, then Villa may be the surprise of 2010-11.

I still stand by what I said about City. Despite Liverpool's struggles and the changing of the goals for the season anything higher than sixth would be a tremendous performance for a rebuilt side. In Mancini we have a manager with a tremendous record in cup competition and I'm hoping that continues for City. Spurs have fulfilled my expectations however it is at Aston Villa that I am surprised. I really thought the lose of Gareth Barry would significantly impact Martin O'Neill's squad for one year. Instead Barry's departure has allowed James Milner to blossom into one of the better midfielders in the league. Meanwhile at Everton as indicated Moyes has been unable to work his annual miracle although the Toffees continue to climb slowly back up the table. Maybe not as high as eighth, but they should be within shouting distance.

Plus One - West Ham

West Ham
Gianfranco Zola is building a quality set up at Upton Park. Give him another year or so and I can see the Hammers starting to nibble at the heels of the top 5 and certainly be in the Europe mix. Probably the biggest surprise is the lack of an influx of Italians into the squad although Zola used those contacts to bring in Chilean international Luis Jimenez in on loan and the midfielder strikes me as one of the most astute pick ups of this transfer window. If anyone crashes the top 8 this year it's West Ham.

Every year there is one team that unexpectedly falls into a relegation struggle. This year it's West Ham and my ninth place prediction looks, well, silly! If you dig a little deeper the Hammers have the best goal difference of those around them significantly better than all except Bolton, and as such I still expect Zola's squad to move up the table. That being said if finances force the club to sell in January it may well be a struggle.

The Surprise Package - Sunderland

Sunderland
If the acquisition of Gareth Barry is the most important pick up of the transfer window then Lorik Cana the former Marseilles captain is number two and no surprise that new Sunderland boss Steve Bruce has installed the Albanian national captain as the Black Cats team leader. With Cana leading the team from midfield it will be fellow new signee Paulo da Silva who will lead the defense. The Paraguayan would also have been a candidate to lead the team. Up front Frazier Campbell and Darren Bent join the previous incumbents Kenwyne Jones and David Healy. Lee Cattermole also joins and in Kieran Richardson Sunderland have a high quality player. The team is probably one more defender away from completion, but this is a very under rated squad and has the strong potential to surprise.

Steve Bruce added that defender, Matthew Turner, and Sunderland got off to an excellent start until they were derailed by the injury to Lee Cattermole. Shows what a fine line there can be between success and failure for a mid table team when the loss of one key player impacts so greatly. Tenth still seems like the correct spot for Sunderland and additional squad depth will be required to maintain that.

Who Knows - Fulham, Blackburn, Bolton, Stoke

Bolton and Stoke
Bolton has Gary Megson which really should be all you need to know. The arrival of South Korean Lee Chung-Yong is of particular interest and strikes me as a bargain more in keeping with the Allardyce era in Horwich. Along with Stoke, Bolton has the most chance to fall back into a relegation battle. Tony Pulis performed miracles in the potteries last year. Alas there's a history of a newly promoted team doing well one year and then struggling the second year and Stoke fits that mold not least because of the lack of serious reinforcements in the transfer window. Stoke will benefit from a full season of striker James Beattie, however I believe it unlikely that Stoke will finish as high as last year.

I know most Manager of the Year accolades are going to be sent the way of Birmingham's Alex McLeish but to me the job Roy Hodgson is doing at Fulham is quite amazing. To be in the top ten at the half way point and the last 32 of the Europa League is unbelievable when you look at the squad that the Cottagers have. Over at Stoke Tony Pulis continues to defy expectations and has his club in the same spot that they finished last year.

Blackburn have been poor this year and I'm surprised at how little Big Sam has been able to influence the team so far. They may be thirteenth but it's a slippery slope back to the relegation zone. At Bolton no surprise to see the back of Gary Megson, really the only question was how long he would last before the change had to be made.

The New Boys - Birmingham, Wolves, Burnley

It would take a miracle for all three to stay up, but this season maybe miracles are the name of the game.

Every year it seems one of the promoted clubs does much better than expected. But really, Birmingham? That is a surprise. Joe Hart has played his way into the World Cup squad for South Africa and Roger Johnson and Scott Dann in the heart of the Birmingham defense have been a revelation coming over from Cardiff and Coventry respectively. Wolves have struggled more than I thought they would and I see them dragged into the relegation battle for the rest of year.

Burnley got off to a great start and have been sliding down the table ever since. At this point for the season Owen Coyle's team average 1 point from 1 game which is normally enough to keep a club up but after that fast start the club now has 8 points in their last 10 games and that is relegation form.

The Relegation Contenders - Portsmouth, Hull, Wigan

Portsmouth
Lastly at Portsmouth the ownership saga continues. The club would appear to potentially in the pipeline have some money but it's been one way traffic with their best players leaving. I'm surprised that one of the other clubs that are realistically in the bottom half of the table, Stoke for example, hasn't targeted David James with a big money move. Removing James from Portsmouth would hasten the inevitable demise of the club into the Championship

Despite what I've said about Bolton, Wolves and Burnley above I still tend towards these three as the relegation candidates. Portsmouth are a mess, Wigan keep getting thumped and Hull had turned the corner until Jimmy Bullard was injured again. If Phil Brown lost the dressing room after the game against City in 2008, Bullard's celebration one year on convinced me that the players had moved on. If Bullard returns to full fitness quickly then Hull have a chance otherwise it's the Championship for them.

And there's my Season Preview. I don't believe the Big Four change this year but it becomes a much tighter race at the top and between fourth and the chasing pack. When it comes to the rest of the division positions eleventh through seventeenth are the hardest to figure. You can throw enough data and hypothesis regarding any of those clubs to "prove" why they should be in the relegation zone.

Broadly speaking at the half way point it looks like a decent pre season preview. West Ham, obviously, is the most glaring mistake. Now it gets interesting. The January transfer window and additional FA Cup fixtures can impact significantly the form of the teams. Most signings in the next month will impact their clubs much more next season, something that is rarely taken into account when the summer signings are reviewed, but there is always an occasional January signing that works immediately. Tottenham, City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Birmingham are within 5 points of each other for the 4th Champions League spot and it is realistic to expect that the battle will go down to the final week of the season. Spurs are away at Burnley, City at West Ham, Liverpool travel to Hull and Birmingham are at Bolton. Only Villa are at home entertaining Blackburn. Something to keep in mind.

At the foot of the table there are just 9 points between Sunderland in 10th and Portsmouth at the foot of the table. Eleven clubs none of whom can afford a bad run of form. I'm not sure we are going to end up with the same scenario as the "Great Escape" season where West Brom, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Norwich went into the final game of the season all with a chance to stay up, or go down, but if you said two relegation spots from five clubs on the last day of the season I wouldn't argue.