This is the second year in a row that the bottom half of the Premier League has been heroically bad, but this season has been just ugly and brutal. Traditionally teams have targeted 40 points if they wanted to avoid relegation. It's a nice round number and it's easy for football types to remember, but is it even relevant any more?

Last season, when seven teams were in serious danger of going down, thirty-six points and goal difference were enough for Fulham to stay up. With eight games left this season, there are nine teams still in trouble and only ten points separating Bolton and West Brom. Will 36 be enough this year?

Last season might have been a bit skewed by Derby County's bid for the history books, collecting just 11 points in 38 games. Before that teams survived on 38, 38 and 34 points. What should those of us who are currently watching our teams lurch and writhe around at the bottom of the table be targeting for survival?

Right now there are eight games left, just about a fifth of the season left, but there seems to be an opportunity to get clear if a team can string a couple of results together. Just in the last two weeks, Fulham have got two results and suddenly they are challenging Wigan for 7th and a European place.

Is that going to be all it takes? Two wins and you're safe? With eight games, or 24 points, left to fight for, and everyone taking points off each other as well, maybe eight or nine points will be enough for survival. Well, except for West Brom…

So, while we're here, who looks like they could be heading for the Championship? And who's heading for a top-half finish? Fortunately, (for you), I had a spare hour and a spreadsheet to help me spread some insight into the murky relegation battle, you lucky, lucky people.

It was pretty simple:
(1). Work out each team's points/game.
(2). Work out each team's points/game over the last six games.
(3). Take the difference. A positive result means they are performing better recently. A negative result means they are playing worse.

Easy. If we assume Spurs and Man City are safe and Bolton is the cut-off point at 34 points, the form table for teams looks like this:
STO 0.6
BOL 0.5
BLK 0.3
POR 0.3
MID -0.1
NEW -0.1
SUN -0.2
HUL -0.3
WBA -0.5

Pretty conclusive stuff, huh? Okay, it might not be that useful, but it does mean I can feel pretty confident about still having this blog next season. It doesn't look like Bolton can go down when there are five teams heading in the wrong direction, right?