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FC Bayern Munich
Posted by Susie Schaaf on 04/16/2012

So, now that we've got that pesky "we can win the Bundesliga" attitude out of the way, we can concentrate on prettier trophies. Besides, who wants that big old ugly plate you can't drink beer out of, when you can have two massively-sized vessels to imbibe from? To me, it's a no-brainer. Duh. Oh, wait. I'm supposed to be serious because this is a VERY. BIG. MATCH. However, this season, when I try to be serious, things go awry for Bayern Munich, so I will try a different tack and see where that gets die Roten.

Though we had to play a two-leg playoff with FC Zuerich to even get in to the Champions League, it was widely speculated that Bayern would reach this phase of the tournament, along with those two Spanish teams. Of course, this was at the beginning of the season when the Bavarians were kicking ass and taking names. (We won't talk about that little stretch after the break. Oh, and this mini-stretch of crap luck now.) "What three teams play the best football in Europe", people would ask. The reply has been consistently been Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. In that order. Always. Regardless of table position, reality, or anything else. And, according to almost everyone that doesn't live in London, two of these three teams will be meeting on May 19th in das Beste Stadion der Welt--- the Allianz Arena. (I didn't tattoo the coordinates of it on my forearm for nothing, you know.)

Here's a few reasons why I think Bayern can get one step closer to their fifth European title:

Howard Webb is the referee. Oh, how it warms the cockles of my heart to see an English ref for this match! Even though he was in charge of our last Champions League Final in 2010; we didn't lose because of bad calls, we lost because of Hamit Altintop.... I digress... Mr. Webb is rated as one of Europe's very best, respected by pretty much everyone in the footballing community (except for Wesley Sneijder and Ryan Babel), and the first to control a CL final and a World Cup final in the same year. Even though he gave the Dutch nine yellows in that 2010 WC final, he also gave the Spanish five. And, yes. They were all well-deserved.

Why do I like English referees? Because the physicality between the English and German style of play is quite similar, thus giving us an advantage. And why do I like Howard Webb? Because he is fair. And with Kroos, Goose, Mueller and Boateng on two yellows, we need fair. Not Italian. And, not a Spanish ref from Madrid (see leg two against Marseille).

While many opine that Munich's back four is their weak point, I say to you: Au contrare! Munich has one of - if not the - best goals against percentage rate in Europe. Through 46 matches, Bayern have let in a paltry .59 in per match. Comparatively, Real Madrid's percentage rate is over 1.0.

OK, so this is partly because we play possession-based football. We don't let opposing teams have the ball to get shots off. And most goals scored against us were due to individual blunders rather than the collapse of the defence as a whole. (Except Mainz hanging three on us in November. That was utter collapse.)

With the attacking strength of both teams’ forwards and midfields, there will be no zone coverage or double marking. So, as long as Lahm, Boateng, Badstuber and Alaba mark well and don't make any stupid mistakes, we'll be just fine. On the Madrid side of things, Pepe and Ramos (like Badstuber and Boateng) can be prone to conceding unnecessary corners and free kicks, while Arbeloa and Marcelo will have their hands utterly full with Ribery and Robben. And conversely, Lahm will be troubled by the estimable Ronaldo, but judging by their international matches, I say Philipp's got a handle on this one.

We are playing at home. While historical stats are generally meaningless for a match of this magnitude, Real Madrid has only managed to win once on a German pitch out of 22 attempts. And, that was back in 2002 against Neverkusen... Oh, I mean Leverkusen. The four times Madrid and Munich have met in Champions League elimination action saw Bayern go through on three.

Manuel Neuer shows up for big matches. Big time. See the semi-final against Manchester United last year, the England - Germany World Cup match... Shall I go on? Iker Casillas, on the other side is as equal, though. Most everyone would rank these goaltenders one and two in the world, with number one relying solely on bias.

Offensively, this match is a push. The attacking prowess of both squads is mightily impressive. For Real Madrid, it's Karim Benzema up front, Mesut Oezil behind him and wings Cristiano Ronaldo and Angel di Maria. For Bayern Munich we've got Mario Gomez, with Thomas Mueller in the ten-slot, and Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben on the wings.

My predicted starting XI's:

FC Bayern Muenchen: Neuer - Lahm, Boateng, Badstuber, Alaba - Schweinsteiger, Gustavo - Robben, Mueller, Ribery - Gomez.

The Spanish Team Not Named Barcelona: Casillas - Marcelo, Ramos, Pepe, Arbeloa - Kaka, Khedira - Ronaldo, Oezil, di Maria - Benzema.

With the Bundesliga title certainly out of our reach, and only the Champions League and the DFB Pokal final to concentrate on, I feel Bayern Munich wins this first leg. Watch for my-man-of-the-match-with-a-huge-chip-on-his-shoulder-cos-he-sucked-against-Dortmund, Arjen Robben, to do something spectacular. A +2 goal differential heading to the Bernabeu next week would be delightful! And I'm salivating over seeing the choreography that filled-to-the-brim Allianz Arena will bring! Ladies and gentleman, the only matchday I can think of better than this? Well, we have to get through Madrid first.

One final note: Welcome, Madridstas! Remember that this is a Bayern Munich blog: I am encouraged to be biased. (Oh, and I am. Very much so.) Your comments will not be posted if you are trolling or insulting other commenters. (You can insult me, however, because I think it's hilarious.) But, let's try to keep the talk footie-related, cos I do love a bit of banter!

Mia san Mia.

You can (and should) follow Susie on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/fussballsusie

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Comments

Posted by Alper on 04/16/2012

I'm missin a lil bit of praise for my team :-P

Posted by Susie on 04/16/2012

Alper---

Mainz?! Ich bin sehr veaergert mit Mainz! Hahahaha.

Posted by kenny on 04/16/2012

I for one disagree with you about Webb handling Tuesday's match. One never knows what he'll do in a big moment (see WC Final, e.g.). I don't think he has the balls, er, courage, to make the big decision, and he is a Brit, which means if a big name player gets shot and flutters to the ground (e.g., ronaldo), he'll easily gift a penalty.
As for Neuer, he loves to go fishing in big moments far too often this year. He worries me. I've been a Roten fan since 1972, but, with the first leg in Munchen, I'm worried. Add to that the un-tasty draw last weekend, and I'd better see some swarming to the attack tomorrow, NOT sitting back and giving Real too much respekt. THAT would be fatal. Let's see what Jupp has up his sleeve.
PS - Fox sports aired a special last night about Munich and the Allianz. It was wonderful. Just glorious. Catch it on rerun if you haven't seen it yet. Prosit.

Posted by J on 04/16/2012

Susie,

Howard Webb is a bought and paid for United player, personally, I'm shocked he's not up for POTY given his record for giving United penalties. I wonder which team they loaned him to for this tie...

Posted by Susie on 04/16/2012

Kenny and J---

Seeing the relationship that MUFC and Bayern have, Webb can therefore only be good for Bayern. :)

Posted by murad on 04/16/2012

I think you got the lineups wrong my friend. Toni kroos should and will play(for me he is the best playmaker in the game), maybe in place of the poor (recently) muller, because basti is back . as for Madrid, you droped Alonso !!!
I think that whatever will the result be tomorrow, the game wont be decided untill the second leg, even if its a bad result for bayern. i am hoping for a clean sheet even if its a draw.

Posted by Susie on 04/16/2012

Murad---

This is why I say that they're my predicted starting line-ups. Definitely not official. My opinion only.

Posted by BrklynBayern on 04/16/2012

Nice post Susie: thanks. I think Real will cough up a goal or two in the first round. A clean sheet is essential at home, so the defense and Neuer need to have great games. if they do, hopefully the rest will fall into place.

I'd love to see Gomez beat Maakay's CL goal scoring record ;).

but, I'll parrot those above, Kroos over Muller in the hole. Alonso on for Real. Also, I think you have it totally wrong with Webb. He is bought and paid for, but not just by ManU. And, Platini said back in the fall that an El Classico CL final would be ideal. Webb has given out at least 4 yellows in every CL game he's officiated. But, he very seldom gives a red. He doesn't need to do alot to give real a huge advantage in the 2nd leg. they don't have anybody on 2 cards. He used to be very respectable and I usually agree about the similarities between the English and German games, but this guy loves to be the center of attention. Spanish teams are used to this, especially Real and Mou.

Posted by grudnik on 04/16/2012

I'm with everyone else, I see Kroos starting at the 10, because Mueller hasn't looked very strong lately.

Pssst, Susie: "das Stadion".

Posted by Muhammad Amin on 04/16/2012

Hope to see Kroos start ahead of Muller cause Muller has been off of late but in the back of my mind when i remember Gerd Muller and his exploits i some how hope he'll do the same.

Posted by susie on 04/17/2012

Now, I'm only stating what I think will happen. But, personally I like Kroos better as a super sub. A straight out switch for Mueller, Schweini or Goose- depending on the card situation or the scoreline.

Posted by pasca on 04/17/2012

German football is wussy in producing enterprising style..its more like the brits..being robotic lacking flair! Hence i gurantee u bayern will be out of sorts! Gomez is just a giant with power and lacking skill,i forsee menace from the defensive midfielder to the back 4 of bayern..firstly lahm is an average defender..poor aerially and boateng is dismall

Posted by Heynckes on 04/17/2012

Pasca,
if you just look at the record Gomez has had in the past 2 years, you would know the number of goals he has scored in all competitions is only behind Messi and Ronaldo. Phillip Lahm is the best right back in the world, he kept Ron***o quiet a couple of times before against Portugal. He will do it again against Madrid.
Mia San Mia!

Posted by Ruud on 04/17/2012

Great, great post Susie,

I agree with you on Muller starting, only because i also believe Kroos is a versatile supersub, thus your predicted formation is tactically sound (IMHO), but let's see what Heynckes thinks!

Don't know about Webb though, could go either way!

@ pasca,

Shows how much you know about the game! Gomez is only a giant with power? and Lahm is an average defender? and all the managers and critics in the world know nothing, because they actually think they're pretty good!
you are embarrassing your self, go on, back to your hole!

Auf Gehts, Die Roten

Posted by FABIAN OKUMU on 04/17/2012

believe it or not realmadrid will emerge victorious

Posted by Tawanda on 04/17/2012

Mourinho has a strategy for Bayern. Remember the CL final against Inter in Madrid where Inter completely dominated. Should have considered the Mourinho factor.

Posted by Brian Bachia on 04/17/2012

heheh another one

Posted by latibaba on 04/17/2012

Best of luck to my DIE ROTEN!
Other comment to follow after Real madrid match.
I want to have the same feeling ,i had in 2001,i pray it happens again.

ich liebe mien Bavarian
Mia san mia.

Posted by ramees mansoor on 04/17/2012

hopefully......itz a game of equal strengths.....away goals will count.....

Posted by ForeverMadrid on 04/17/2012

Nice Post!
I would love to see your expressionless face after los blancos hammer Bayern :) Long live los blancos..

Posted by Mvp_xanadu on 04/17/2012

Can i marry you?

Posted by Byg Demz on 04/17/2012

Howard Webb always in luv with teams in Red. Common Bayern!

Posted by @Leo messi on 04/17/2012

it doesnt matter who win the match because at the end, barca rules the world. LOL

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

@Pasca

Are you mentally challenged? I am a Madrid fan (looking forward to this tie, should be the best tie of the year) but to say Gomez has no talent, that's just... again challenged? And Lahm is a god damned MONSTER.. He is going to give our left side (Ronaldo most likely) one hell of a time trying to do ANYTHING. He is most likely one of the best PURE Right Backs in the game, if not THE best, he shuts down opponents. Now lets take a look at the rest of the field. Neuer, one of the most talented up and coming keepers in the game, Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger all speak for themselves, monsters. It is going to be a hell of a game tonight, and I can not wait. Good luck to all you Bayern Fans, great post Susie, and cant wait till tonight's match =) And no, this game will not be decided it just 1 leg even if Madrid do somehow stomp on Bayern, they are too good of a team to just "ignore" sure there run of form hasnt been the best as of late, but has Madrids? No........

Posted by Ronaldo on 04/17/2012

Münnnnchennnnnn!!!! We are back!

Posted by grudnik on 04/17/2012

German football is robotic, and lacking flair?

I wonder why the BL is the most attended league in Europe, the highest scoring league among the big boys year in and year out, and why the German national team is praised for it's entertaining style of play.

Something doesn't compute. Maybe Pasca is right, and the rest of the footballing world is wrong. Yeah, that's probably it.

Posted by Kory on 04/17/2012

Your blog is great as always! I took off at noon today to go home and watch the match! Can't wait!

Posted by jacob on 04/17/2012

three players who have points to prove:
-robben: against his former team, and following the BvB penalty miss, he needs to show up. which means, dribbling AND passing AND defending
-schweinsteiger: he has not played his best yet since returning from injury. this needs to be the day. plus, schweini would've won the CL, WC and Euros if it weren't for the spaniards. He needs to show that the germans (club/country) can do the spaniards one better.
-ribery: he could be playing at real if he hadn't resigned at bayern a couple years back, and i don't think he regrets it. he does, however, regret missing the '10 final, and he needs to play at his best to give himself the opportunity to get back there!

besides that, the defense needs to stay tight and everybody needs to avoid stupid yellow cards. i think that to be in a good position for the game in the bernabeau, we need to look for a 2-1 result or better. AUF GEHTS FCB!!!!!!! MIA SIN MIA!!!!!

Posted by Susie on 04/17/2012

Tawanda...

The only reason Inter dominated in 2010 was because Ribery was suspended which allowed Mou to put Robben in double, and sometimes triple coverage. He doesn't have that luxury today.

Posted by Anonymous on 04/17/2012

What did she smoke when she predicted the line ups? Tony Kroos left out?
He was even rested against Mainz for this game, on the other hand as he is playing right now he is first option before: Muller, Gustavo and even Schweinsteiger who is not fully tuned up after coming back from injury.

Posted by Susie on 04/17/2012

Anon-

Just a couple Marlboro Lights, dearie.

Posted by Ruud on 04/17/2012

Anonymous,

I will laugh my ass off if muller starts ahead of Kroos. Hahaaha..

Posted by Susie on 04/17/2012

ForeverMadrid-

Win or lose, we're on the booze. Expressionless doesn't come in to play.

Kyle-

Thank you for being an intelligent Madrista!

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

@Jacob I agree, Robben, Schweinsteiger and Ribery all really need to pick it up. Robben missing against BvB on that penalty, was humiliating, but I think he will take that and turn it into fuel to create one hell of an exciting match, again I am a Madrid fan, but this is going to be an AMAZING game. T Minus 5 hours!!!!!!!!!! And @ Ruud Muller SHOULD start over Kroos, you are going to want him to be able to come on for ANYONE in the midfield, Bayern dont have THAT much depth, I would start Muller over Kroos and have myself a supersub, Madrid has a tough week, we have this tie, then a el classico and cant really rest any of our stars, but thankfully we have a DEEP bench. Again, good luck to Bayern fans!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Ottox on 04/17/2012

I also don't think that Webb is good news for Bayern. English referees tend to be biased against German teams. Webb had one of his better days during the 2010 CL final - helped by the fact that there were no big decisions to make - but even there I had the impression that he favored Inter in many little decisions.

Posted by Justin on 04/17/2012

My two favorite clubs are Bayern Munchen and Fulham FC in the EPL, so I see a lot of Howard Webb. He is fair for the most part unless Man U is on the pitch, in that case it's a guaranteed 3 points for the Red Devils. Here's to seeing Bayern win it in their home stadium!

p.s. I know there has been talk of my other club's star, Clint Dempsey, leaving this summer. Think he could fit in with Bayern? If he's going to leave, I'd rather him go there than anywhere else...

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

@Justin Dempsey is an amazing player, dont get me wrong, but the reason he excells so much at Fulham is because the team is built based on him. If he went to a top flight club, I dont think he would be the same player, I think he would lose playing time, and thus form, but dont get me wrong, he is an phenomenal player

Posted by Susie on 04/17/2012

Justin-

Dempsey is defo my favorite American player. But, no. Bayern hasn't asked about him.

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

Susie - I try not to be a 100% biased fan. I love my team dont get me wrong, but when you face a team like bayern you have to give credit where it is deserved, and have been following bayern for most of the year (I enjoy to watch all the leagues, and have to root for SOME team in each league, or its boring! But thank you for the compliment, I try to say things as I see them, not just bash on a team because they aren't "my team" (which I see far too often in blogs ((not by poster, but people comments)) )

Posted by Schweini31 on 04/17/2012

As a Bayern fan, the thing I am most concerned about is their ability to break down a team defending en masse. If it's anything like last week's game at Dortmund - and let's be honest Inter under Mourinho smothered Bayern in 2010 (I know Ribery wasn't there but Robben carried them to the final) - then Bayern is in trouble.

Heynckes has seemingly been good about the locker room, less player revolts this year. But when it comes to tactics this team has been severely lacking at critical times and not just last week vs BVB (see the February 0-0 tie at Freiburg).

This lack of tactics or plans in my opinion has also adversely effected Muller as there doesn't seem to be a clear idea of how to use him like Van Gaal did. One can only hope that his poor form will not carry over to this summer's Euros.

All that withstanding, nothing would be finer then to eliminate old nemesis Real Madrid.

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

According to the numbers its all in Bayerns favor to win tonight, but I try not to look at the past numbers (esp for a CL semi final tie because they have NOTHING to do with whats currently going on) but I really think its going to be a 0-0 draw tonight (which as a Madrid fan would make me happy) just because I think there is going to be so much intensity. I would love nothing more than to see a brilliant Ronaldo and Robben goal, but I think both teams defenses are very strong and not many chances are gonna be created.

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

Actually, I want to take back my previous statements of both teams having a strong defense, Madrids defense has been not great lately. Ramos and Pepe in the middle do mine, but our wingers, meh and with a team like Bayern that SPREAD the field as wide as they can, its gonna be tough.

Posted by ren on 04/17/2012

who's helping us achieve this 2+ goal advantage back to madrid? robben, and?

Posted by maciej on 04/17/2012

xabi alsonso starting- no dounbts

Posted by MAK2014 on 04/17/2012

Bayern has a very good reason to hope mostly because of their chemistry. Heynckes has kept true to the Bayern way in putting key players where they need to be.

Posted by jsncjn on 04/17/2012

pasca -

If you mean by entertaining "diving", then by all means La Liga has German and English football beat. Nowhere do I see more pansy grown men pretending to be hurt than in La Liga.

Posted by HADAD MALE on 04/17/2012

Howard Webb is biased especially with man utd games,i dont see his merit with Bayern. Bayern has one of the best attacking squads in europe and by the way Realmadrid is on abig test today.I cant wait to watch.

Posted by Bob Halasz on 04/17/2012

Susie, what a great blog. I am a Barcelona fan simply because I have been to the city the most. I am not an avid futboller, but your write-up is very informative. I am thinking a draw in this feature, though. Both teams will be up for this one. You, though, are without doubt the most beautiful blogger I have read, with exceptional skills. If Bayern plays as good as you write, they will make the finals. Then, we can start really talking...hahahaha

Posted by grudnik on 04/17/2012

Kroos in the starting lineup (as well as Schweinsteiger), Mueller on the bench.

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

HADAD MALE - Bayern has a excellent attacking team, and can really use the full width of the field, but Real Madrid are just CRUSHING goal scoring records, which can be a problem even for Bayern who have the lowest GA on average. It is going to come down to who runs a better defense, and as a Madrid fan, I can be scared about that, Bayern have a VERY strong defense, where Madrid has been having back line issues all year, our CBs work great, but our RB/LB isnt great.

Posted by Kyle on 04/17/2012

HADAD MALE - Bayern has a excellent attacking team, and can really use the full width of the field, but Real Madrid are just CRUSHING goal scoring records, which can be a problem even for Bayern who have the lowest GA on average. It is going to come down to who runs a better defense, and as a Madrid fan, I can be scared about that, Bayern have a VERY strong defense, where Madrid has been having back line issues all year, our CBs work great, but our RB/LB isnt great.

Posted by Shekhar on 04/17/2012

What a game...
Howard Webb though was a slight let down, i think we should have had atleast one penalty and maybe one more + Real Madrid should have had atleast 1 sending off if not 2. Alonso on Kroos and Marcelo on Muller

Bayern still prevailed, waiting for the return leg. Madrid still have a very good chance of progressing, but Bayern are in the driving seat at the moment

Posted by Benson on 04/18/2012

If only Kaka has started the game for real madrid, thigs would be totally different....

Posted by Anonymous on 04/18/2012

go madrid

Posted by grudnik on 04/18/2012

Anyone want to take bets on whether Coentrao even gets a spot on the bench in the return leg?

How many times did he get beat by Robben, either by a move, or by simple speed?

Great move by Lahm, going around him, and setting up Gomez for the winning goal.

Posted by Opa Bill on 04/19/2012

Now that the first leg has been won by Die Roten, it will take at least a couple of goals by Bayern to win in Madrid. At least it will make my grandson Eli very happy.

Posted by Ruud on 04/19/2012

@ whoever said Lahm is average and Gomez is just a giant; Irony is a bitch!

Lahm squares it to Gomez to TAP IN!

Posted by Kamaal Abdul on 04/19/2012

Although few people gave Bayern a chance of winning at home to RM, we've seen the first leg in which we were very unlucky that it was only 2-1 in my opinion we'll win the tie overall and be the first team to play a CL final at home. This will be fantastic for us don't you think Sucie?

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